Subject: Risk Analysis in Decision Making Process (17 - ZP510)

Basic Information

Scientific or art field:Upravljanje rizikom od katastrofalnih događaja i požara
Native organizations units

Course native organizational units not found!
Course specification

Course is active from 29.08.2017..

The course objective is to acquire necessary knowledge for decision making in disaster and fire risk management process.
After passing the exam, students will be trained to identify and classify the system, analyze the risks at all stages of the disaster cycle and assess the circumstances and their influence on the outcome of the decision-making process in terms of both prevention and the realization of a catastrophic event.
Basics of probability theory (sample space and events, probability definitions, conditional probabilities, Bayes rule); Descriptive statistics (measures, graphical representations); Uncertainty modeling (random variables, stochastic processes and extreme values); Estimation, statistical tests and model building ( Parameter estimation, Statistical tests, Model building and evaluation); Bayesian decision analysis. System definition, Systems view of integrated disaster management, System formulation examples, Simulation, System dynamics simulation, System approach to Disaster risk management, Source of uncertainty, Conceptual risk definition, Probabilistic approach, Engineering decisions under uncertainty, Decision making and integrated risk management: Individual decision making, Decision making in organizations, Decision making in government, Implementation of system analysis to management of disasters, Human behaviour during disasters
The course is held via auditory lectures accompanied by slides and examples case studies of good practice which will encourage detailing and solving certain problems. Visits to enterprises and institutions are also planed, as well as the lectures provided by experts.
Havbro Faber, M.Statistics and Probability Theory : In Pursuit of Engineering Decision Support (Topics in Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality)2012SpringerEnglish
Simonović, S.P.Systems Approach in Management of Disasters : Methods and Applications2011Wiley, New JerseyEnglish
Huder, R.C.Disaster Operations and Decision Making2012John Wiley & Sons, inc., New JerseyEnglish
Course activity Pre-examination ObligationsNumber of points
Exercise attendanceYesYes5.00
Written part of the exam - tasks and theoryNoYes50.00
Lecture attendanceYesYes5.00
Term paperYesYes40.00
Name and surnameForm of classes
Missing picture!

Ivetić Jelena
Associate Professor

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Laban Mirjana
Full Professor

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Kolaković Slobodan
Associate Professor

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Draganić Suzana
Assistant Professor

Practical classes
Missing picture!

Đokić Jelena
Asistent sa doktoratom

Practical classes